Originally Posted by
pangolin
Interesting observation. With the new pay stabilizing the former heavy FO attrition at the regionals but not really stopping the ca attrition we have the regionals having to stop fo hiring. The new economy is going to make the ulcc the new entry level airline. As they have to lower their hiring standards the regionals are in danger of eventually fixing their ca problem over time but then being unable to hire FOs. I see it coming.
I've been saying this for awhile. It's clear that as long as there's a demand for labor from the top, the regionals will continue to shrink, mainline will do more of that flying or cut the markets that they can't/won't serve. The LCCs are now having smaller pools to choose from and they have a bigger FO attrition rate than CA with the golden handcuffs effect, so it seems logical that the next step for them is to expand their hiring of 1500hr CFIs outside of their current partnership programs. I think we're in a growing pains period right now where the market is taking time to reach that point but I foresee that being the norm in the next 2-3 years, barring a large drop in demand.