Originally Posted by
160to4
Of those 1500 FOs, there are a few “career FOs” that will likely never see the left seat, lots of FOs still bypass the upgrade, a few live abroad and don’t want to upgrade because they won’t be able to bid lines that allow them to keep living abroad comfortably. The average attrition remains 25-40/month, 5-10 retires a month, and 8-20 upgrades/month, I would say as long as we don’t lose an entire fleet, those upgrade time will remain fairly accurate
There is no significant growth. Except for rare exceptions, it’s FO’s that are leaving. Upgrade times will, IMO, continue to increase and seniority progression for Captains will stagnate.
When I upgraded the upgrade times were around 3 years. They’re now about 5.5 years as I recall and it’s only been 4 years. That’s not a good trend for people looking for an upgrade, or for the junior Captains.