Here's a simple chart that depicts the increase of leverage as the RLA process plays out. This chart is very basic and it is meant to impart a very basic idea: for the great bulk of the time spent trodding down the path of the RLA, leverage accumulates slowly. But, it accelerates dramatically during the final stages of the RLA process.
Yes, we need to approve a strike authorization - and the higher the vote in favor, the more leverage we hand to the NC. But, as they say, "stay frosty." A SAV does not dramatically improve our leverage right away. However, it paves the way for the development of tremendously more leverage later in the process. It IS an absolute necessity.
It's important to note that the RLA specifies no time limit for mediation. That's what the break symbol on the x-axis signifies. The likely record for shortest time spent in mediation before being released into a cooling off period was the railroads last year at 136 days. As of today, we have been in mediation 148 days. Not that it's impossible to be released earlier, but typically, it probably does not start to become realistic for a labor group to be released from mediation until it has at least exceeded the average time in mediation for all cases before the NMB.
It's difficult to determine that number because the data is hard to come by, but a partial analysis (emphasis on "partial") of mediation cases over the last five years puts the average time in mediation at well over 500 calendar days if adjustments are made for the pandemic and close to 700 days if those adjustments are removed. There are individual cases, mostly due to their union's fumbling, that have gone way over 1,000 days. ABX, for example, went 2,342 days. But they had a representation dispute going on, an injunction issued against their union (IBT) for an illegal job action, and then the pandemic.
The "We Are Here" arrow shows about where we are right now in the cultivation of leverage under the RLA.
Attachment 7410