Not sure I agree with the words "petrified" and "alarmist", and I would love to no what "dumb things" you mean, but I'm the first to recognize and applaud the fact that we are all entitled to our own opinion and interpretations of facts.

Now I'd like to expand my thoughts on the topic you seem to be referencing. Namely that we U-ALPA will ask for too much and therefore push negotiations on for years and not months.

First off I should say that several weeks ago I was, in fact, concerned that the MEC would make an offer to the company that was so far from what was acceptable that we would end up taking years to get a contract and not months. I no longer think that is likely. I was concerned because my back of the envelope calculations put the cost of delaying a new contract very high on an individual basis. Therefore the gains to be had must be substantial, in order to take a delay, and THAT equation seemed very out of balance to me. As I said, I do not consider my posts on this topic to be "alarmist" nor do I consider myself "petrified". I perceive my comments as attempting to moderate the expectations of the younger members eager for big gains. However, I do also realize I may be out of step with the times. To wit:


I have been extremely fortunate in the world of investing, and I attribute my success to having taken a conservative approach based on the teachings of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Peter Lynch. In recent years I have been a bit puzzled by the number of successful investors who completely forsake some of the fundamentals outlined by those three gentlemen, and the extent to which companies now trade at PE multiples that seem utterly fantastic. What I now realize or rather believe, is that times and investor logic may be changing and my mode of investing and method of valuing stocks may be a dying one. Younger, modern investors, lean more towards Momentum Investing versus Value Investing and therefore do not fear high PEs. In fact many modern pundits argue that PE is no longer a useful metric. Clearly both methods work, and times have most definitely changed.

So, how does this apply here? Well, my views are from that of a 57 year old with 27 years at United. It may well be that younger folks (which I assume you are based on your comment history -but my apologies if I am mistaken) have a very different view of what they both expect and think is possible in terms of "gets" in the next contract, and if so then it will likely be reflected in the outcome of this round of negotiations and my "Hat's Off" (literally) to the younger generation.

JP - The Alarmed and Petrified Pilot