Originally Posted by
Lumberg823
15,700ish, with 12,800 active line flying (rest are on ltd, various leaves or instructors/mgmt). The goal I've seen is 18,000. If you factor in retirements, then the current pace of hiring of 22-2400 a year is going to be the pace for several more years. Each aircraft on order drives approx 8 pilots per seat or 16 per plane. With growth of 350ish planes and retirements, I'd say another 8k or so more pilots to hire to fill the planes on order. That number will need to be hired in the next 5 years. Leaving now would easily make sense imho.
When I was at Indoc in the spring they said the goal is closer to 25,000. Now that's a goal so it's probably pie in the sky, and who knows what the economy will look like in a few years but the goal is 2,000 new hires a year for the next few years and probably ramping up even more when the new sim building is completed. Either way it's clear seniority movement is gonna be much better here for the next several years and it won't get close unless the economy crashes, or until the younger SWA demographic hits the mandatory retirement bar in what, 7 or 8 years?
I've had buddies go through Indoc at United, Delta and SWA. One of them had a lot of empty seats and a noticeable number of new hires bail while still in training, and it wasn't Delta or United. Everyone's situation is different and there's a lot of variables, but people are voting with their feet. I don't have anything against SWA, but that's what I'm advising my buddies in the process of making the leap and that seems to be the consensus I hear from others on and off APC.