Originally Posted by
Excargodog
Doubtful. 50 seaters can’t even afford to pay current wages, the CASM is too high. It’ll keep up only long enough for the legacy to get enough A220s to replace the flying, albeit at far lower frequency. Which fix will then gradually move up to the 70 and 76 seaters. Nor will that fix the CA shortage - not with regional CAs continuing to be hired and regional FOs with any 121 time at all being able to go to ULCCs where they’ll gain both hours and $$ faster than at a regional. And a three year stoppage in retirements won’t fix that. It’s a queuing problem.
The 50 seaters are primarily being operated for United—Air Wisconsin, GoJet, and Commutair—and United seems to be willing to subsidize the increased labor costs at least short term. They even bailed out Mesa. Perhaps United is trying to keep them going for a couple more years until they can cover the flying themselves?
Piedmont operates 50 seaters and is unlikely to fail with AA subsidizing them and relying on their feed. Although Envoy is slowly parking their E145s and transferring some to Piedmont, so it could happen—when AA is ready.
Endeavor still flies CRJ 200s, I can see those being parked as Endeavor shrinks. SkyWest still flies CRJ 200s, not sure for which partners, but they are big enough to survive when no one wants to fly on the 200s anymore. Mandatory upgrades don’t seem to have helped them. It will be interesting to watch what happens.