Another take:
Try analyzing the cost of hiring a "pilot" without experience from zero. This is what is coming when the well runs dry.
The airlines know what they are doing here. Securing pilots now, and getting them seniority, is like hedging fuel. They know the cost to bring in pilots (and the ongoing costs of hiring pilots without experience) will be going up exponentially, and the carriers slow to act will not have a seat when the music stops.
This is likely about 10 years from now, not about today.
bwthdik
