Originally Posted by
CQKSNT
Analysis of every earnings call, investor meeting, and public appearance/interview/speaking engagement Kirby has done over the last 3ish years will reveal that -
1) His goal is to be the biggest airline ever
2) This goal requires a 10 year strategy
3) The 10 year strategy is built largely around the pilot shortage. He plans to use the shortage as a competitive advantage and hire every pilot he can over the next 5-10 years. He has stated that whatever company has the pilots Will get the business.
4) This long-term strategy will not be impacted by short term swings in the economy
5) He believes crew cost will be come a pass-through just like fuel
All this means he cannot afford to wait on a contract and allow competitors to hire the pilots. Especially since Delta will have to match whatever he pays, so it’s really not hurting him to go over Delta because of what he calls cost-convergence.
Takeaway: hold the line and be patient! Do not fold.
He will pay a bit over Delta, 5% however in a major cost area is huge in the business world. He will modify the plan as needed to avoid the premium. It would probably be cheaper to hire zero time pilot candidates and pay for the training than pay a 5% premium. There is always a plan B.