It is scary. And, from all indications, we're about to fritter away our opportunity here at SWA to capitalize upon the "once in a lifetime opportunity." If the latest NC Update that just came out yesterday doesn't scare you, then you aren't familiar with how SWAPA works.

Remember, our current contract was the TA-2 that was voted in by 84% of the membership in 2016 and sold by SWAPA as a win. They said they believed it was the best they could do after spending 2,068 days in mediation, never announcing a SAV, and never providing more than the barest, most token RLA education to the membership.

What's the thing that our membership points to as the highlight of our current contract that resulted from TA-2? It got us a still-industry-lagging B-fund. A B-fund that most of the rest of the industry had for years before SWAPA managed to achieve it. Even AirTran had a B-fund for more than a decade before SWAPA got one for its pilot group. And that, right there, was the big win: achieving an industry-lagging retirement plan that after 30 years nets a SWA pilot $1M less than their peers (now close to $2M less than DL).

Oh, and we also got some reserve rule improvements. Aside from that, the major justification for the 84% voting yes was the meaningless banality, "It was much better than what 'SWAPA 1.0' would have gotten us." An absurdity like that doesn't get anyone materially anywhere close to industry-leading disability insurance, work rules, career compensation, retirement, parking, uniforms, or benefits.

We have the chance RIGHT NOW to seize this once in a lifetime opportunity. But all the indications are, from the NC update yesterday to the messaging traffic on other forums and the recent tenor of the SWAPA reps, that we are on the precipice of blowing this one-shot opportunity. The second SWAPA agrees to an AIP, the sell job will begin in earnest (they will deny it's a sell job) and members will be coming out of the woodwork like termites from a rotted log to provide cover and justification for a YES! vote. If you haven't been around here long, you might bristle at the idea of that. But that's the way things go around here. It's also the way things went at both Alaska and Delta this cycle. It's almost like a law of nature.

When the AIP comes, unless it's obviously and appallingly bad on its face like UA's Tumi TA last year, it will pass overwhelmingly with our membership. The mental gymnastics to justify the YES! vote will be gold medal worthy. When the AIP comes, it will be too late to salvage the once in a lifetime opportunity. We will collectively regret blowing our shot at this in about 18 months.

You better contact your reps now if you want something better than what is clearly brewing because we are very close to approaching the event horizon in this process.