The "historical" seven-year recession cycle came due in 2014... they've been saying it's right around the corner, any day now for the last nine years

The old paradigm is broken, I don't pretend to know what the new one is and I'm not saying recessions won't happen, but covid and the red army in a ground war in Europe haven't quite triggered one yet.

We already *got* higher fuel prices.

Also travel is thriving even as other consumer spending sectors slow down a bit. Looks like pent-up demand and new travel habits will get us through this cycke at least.

I have as much PTSD from industry cycles as the next Lost Gen, but rationally I think we might be OK on this one at least.

Age 67 might allow the system to stabilize long enough for the majors to do what they should have done 15 years ago... establish ab initio pipelines which they can control. I think there are plenty of folks who would love to be airline pilots if they can simply apply, show up, and attend training without worrying about tuition, loans, collateral, and top ramen.