Originally Posted by
rickair7777
The "historical" seven-year recession cycle came due in 2014... they've been saying it's right around the corner, any day now for the last nine years
The old paradigm is broken, I don't pretend to know what the new one is and I'm not saying recessions won't happen, but covid and the red army in a ground war in Europe haven't quite triggered one yet.
We already *got* higher fuel prices.
Also travel is thriving even as other consumer spending sectors slow down a bit. Looks like pent-up demand and new travel habits will get us through this cycke at least.
I have as much PTSD from industry cycles as the next Lost Gen, but rationally I think we might be OK on this one at least.
Age 67 might allow the system to stabilize long enough for the majors to do what they should have done 15 years ago... establish ab initio pipelines which they can control. I think there are plenty of folks who would love to be airline pilots if they can simply apply, show up, and attend training without worrying about tuition, loans, collateral, and top ramen.
This ^^^^. This industry has greatly underestimated, and continues to underestimate the need for programs like this. They have been behind the bell curve for years. Flying is cost prohibitive unless you have financing that you can easily apply for. But then when people see the bill they will be stuck with after taking out a massive loan, they balk and decide on other career options instead. Cost is a major factor in new student starts and completion all the way to CFI/CFII/MEI. The majors have been burying their heads in the sand for a long time on this and it’s starting to catch up.
Also, another thing I and myself have noticed over the years, is that kids don’t really have an interest in aviation as much as previous generations did. They would rather be pretend pilots on Microsoft flight sim and other gaming platforms and don’t value a pilot career as much.