I'll stick to The Economist.

If I was buying oil contracts at $109 at the moment I would be very nervous. It amazes me how short peoples memories are some times. I understand that this price rise has held on for some time, and for nonsensical reasons (In MHO). Coming from oil country I have a bit of an understanding of how the flow of fuel through exploration to production to the pump works, and I know what the cost of production is in the sand in northern Alberta as I have lived there and visited the sites; it's about $15 dollars per barrel, not fifty as some in the petroleum business like to make out. But I'll try not to get into that. My base point is that the last time oil shot up this high it ended down at about $12 per barrel. I see no reason why, once all the BS clears up and people realize that they can get as much gas as they want, hence no shortage, and traders start to get nervous and short sell to cover their long contracts, the whole thing will come crashing down. In essence, the greed that is driving this will be the downfall of the greedy, not to sound to pontiff. But, until then the net result is that airline companies with poor business models (and often poor pilot wages) are failing; I wonder if this is not really a good thing in the long run. Just how much safety do people think they buy for their $10 ticket anyway?

As for the US economy, I hope I am right as well, but It's not just wishful thinking. Recently February cargo traffic outbound across the Atlantic was up 6% by month. That's pretty good. Visit a factory in the US (I did last week) and you'll hear directly about their offshore sales and current backlogs. It'll take a while for many manufacturers to feel safe enough to ramp up production I agree, but being safe is not a bad thing in the short term either. As long as the economy doesn't hit real, prolonged (more than three to four quarters?)recession, manufacturers will increase capacity, thus increasing jobs. Americans can thank globalization that their recent problems may not hurt as much as they could, and have, in the past. As for the week US dollar, that's what is helping them the most right now, so I wonder if it's a bad thing in the near term. Pilot contract wise yes, but again, diving into contracts in other currencies might not be the smartest thing in the long term, unless you are some kind of For-Ex genius. Of course the minute I buy into a foreign contract in Euros I can guarantee the Greenback will rally huge.

As for the credit crunch, well that really makes me angry. The banks loaned money to people who couldn't repay it back at the increased rates. . . ever. They acted like pushers with 'teaser' rates, zero down and loaning to bad credit history borrowers based on inflated prices. Of course the BNZ was kind enough to ramp up my loans, and made sure that I held huge % equity before they lent me any money, all the while sending my money over to the US banks to loan to people who were never going to be a good risk. But, how much and for how long has/will that hit the US economy? Likely not very long (again, in MHO).

Frankly, I'm more worried at the moment about the NZ economy than the US. What kind of production capacity do we have to save our buts once it all goes sideways? Or are we really going to continue to lay our hopes on tourists and cows? Helen gets in again mate and I'm leaving.

Anyway, kind of the wrong place for this discussion isn't it. . . sorry 'bout that all.