Originally Posted by
Finessed
You think you boys can last 2 years before one of your low time, zero to hero “diversity” new hire flies a bird into the ground? The FAA is projecting 18 months for United, I’ll give it 6.
As devil's advocate: Plenty of white dudes getting hired at historically low total time, because plenty of people are getting hired at low time period. Less white dudes than 1993 because there's less white dudes in the population pool as a percentage. I was a "diversity" hire with less than 2500TT at my current airline in 2020 and my feet, knees, and back remind me about it every chance they get (full disclosure, also a white dude that's been in and out of the industry over the last 15 years). I've passed two type rating courses there since being picked up from that regional. Do I deserve to be there? I think so. To quote a cheesy aviation movie: "If the government trusts me, maybe you can too?" And no, not a pick-up line in this context...get your minds outta the gutter!
Speaking of those regionals (which may or may not exist at the end of the decade): they have been putting these guys in ERJs and CRJs for a couple decades now. And 737s and 320s aren't that different from 145s and 200s. Yeah, VNAV is fancy (and confusing as f#ck when it's poorly/not taught) or whatever, but it's not like the 3-1 rule and V/S doesn't work in a Boeing if you totally goof VNAV up. If CFI's can learn RJs, they can learn NB jets. I saw a lot of training department change and adaptation between the mid 2000s and late 2010s at the regional level. It's anecdotal, of course, but those training departments came to meet their new hires where they were, which was not showing up to indoc with 12 months in a fly-by-night check running 135 outfit (a la mid-2000s regionals), much less having a decade in the Air Force, 6-7 years at a regional, or 5-10 years hauling freight in Barons and 1900s under their belt (a la the legacies at one point or another in the last 20-30 years).
At any rate, it's not a hiring department's labor market anymore. The largest (to date) generation in US history is exiting the labor market en masse and will be gone by the end of the decade, regardless of our feelings and concerns. Mil is pumping out what - maybe 3000 pilots a year now? There's a pool of 15-20k at the regionals, getting very FO heavy? All airlines will adapt to the current labor market or shrink/die. At some point we're just yelling at clouds unless we plan to be a constructive part of the solution.