Substitution is the New Norm
Welcome to the new normal. Gauge changes and resulting substitution is going to be the new normal going forward. With the FedEx DRIVE program optimized to "right size" the equipment to the expected loads, we can all expect the Domestic network to be filled with gauge changes on a monthly, weekly, and daily basis. We are already seeing the beginnings of it with the numerous X pairings that dropped to OT this past week. It happened in all domestic fleets and from what I can tell, nearly all of them were as a result of gauge changes.
What does this mean for pilots? It means the schedule that you bid, no matter how senior, can be taken from you and you will be placed in substitution. Let's call a spade a spade. Substitution is pseudo-reserve. You are not pay protected. Sure, you can deny anything they give to you, but you better be prepared to work on your other days off to make up that pay. So you can either fly what they give you (even if it's worse than what your seniority could have held), or attempt to find something in the minimal OT to ensure you actually get a paycheck.
Many from years past will tell you that substitution wasn't given much thought as needing to be fixed in this contract because it wasn't used that often. That may have been the case then, but it will not be so going forward. FedEx has never done the type of analysis on every revenue leg that they are doing now. In the past if the jet was empty, it was empty, it still went. If the load on a 767 would have fit on a 757, didn't matter, the 767 was going. That will not be the case any more. Fine, it's a wise business decision to ensure the proper equipment is serving the proper market. We all get that. But that doesn't mean the pilot group should be subject to all being on pseudo-reserve and not fully pay protected due to the trip being cancelled.
Pay close attention over the next few months on how this all plays out. Watch the Xtra trips you see. Go find what the original trip and equipment was. Find the schedule of the pilot that was put in sub and see just how good their new schedule ends up being. I bet you'll be shocked. There is a current 76 trip out there (the guy posted it on JF so not hard to find) who is in sub every single week next month. The company has so far dropped a random assortment of multiple trips on his schedule that are infinitely worse than what he had. Luckily, he had days trips originally and can decline them. That won't be the case for most folks. Additionally, because the company has put random trip on his schedule that both they and he know he will never accept, they are essentially hiding open time trips by putting them on his schedule. Those are all trips that someone else might rather have, but they will remain tied up until he eventually declines them. Why not decline them now then? Because that will just give the company more time to find trips that he WOULD have to accept (or go to OTP).
Pay attention y'all. This is our new normal on the domestic side. When a TA comes out and substitution isn't fixed, or increased as is rumored, make sure you vote accordingly.
Finally, don't believe those who claim that if we want improvements (notice I said improvements) to Sub that we must give up line bidding, vacation, or retirement. That just isn't true.