Good on you! As mentioned the guard/reserve path is ideal because A- you can get a civilian job aka a line number faster, which is a massive, massive deal, and B- when you are hired you know exactly what you will fly, where you will be based, and thus, the quality of life. The downside is it is more difficult to get hired off the street by guard or reserve units. Also, you aren't necessarily a full time employee in the guard or reserves. If you're a traditional reservist working 1 weekend a month + 2 weeks a year + flying 2x a month then you're getting paid for exactly 62 days a year. You can pick up full time orders if it's in the budget. If something outside of your control happens like military budget cuts, POTUS grabbing funds to build a border wall, or even the wing messing up their budget, then you are essentially unemployed for the rest of the fiscal year + 1 month for the money to trickle down again. The other downside is you might want to change your mind about what you want to fly. Going into UPT I knew top gun looked cool and wanted single seat fighters. I quickly realized that would be miserable, so good thing I wasn't hired by a unit that only flew the F-16.

Active duty will be a safe and secure job, but your job will be 90% admin/office work, you'll move around, and you don't know what you'll fly or where you'll go initially...or at several points in your career. Giving up 12 years to Uncle Sam will delay your entry into the airline world. MAYBE that will be a bad thing. MAYBE that will be the best possible financial decision you ever make. I graduated into the Great Recession and dodged COVID and never lost a night's sleep about paying the mortgage or keeping my job. Someone who graduated at the end of COVID and is hitting the airline market now is going to be in a far better position than me, people who hit the industry in 2001 had it far worse than me. Who knows what the future will hold. I did 13 years and went to the reserves, and I have a legit shot at a reserve or AD retirement and I got the best of both worlds. Some buddies had the opportunity to bail early, but they looked at their life and choose to do 20 years and then hit the airlines and they will be roughly 14,000 names below me on the seniority list, but they'll also have medical and a pension to fall back on if they get furloughed. But they certainly appreciated having the option to stay in or leave, which is a rare bit of flexibility.

Civilian track is a hard row to how too, I got my training for 0 dollars but I signed away 12 years of my life to get them. Is that better or cheaper than paying 150k for the ratings, taking out student loans and grinding away as a CFI for 20k a year? Who knows. But many, many, many people do that too. When it comes to the cargo/airline debate, well it's not even a debate until you get a choice. Base you options off where you want to live and which company is willing to hire you, in that order.

Timing is everything, but the best thing you can do is maximize your chances. Go to every manned guard or reserve unit you can to build relationships and apply. Apply to OTS, IDK if ROTC is still an option at your stage in the game. Apply to the regional airlines or other flying jobs. If AD or the regionals becomes the only option you have, then your decision is made for you. If you have options, come back here and weigh them. In the meantime, control what you can with good grades, good fitness scores, good AFOQT scores, and hopefully it all works out for you! Have a fall back plan with that business degree if the industry tanks or life changes.