777 and 787 CA plugs are in the 3200 range. A new hire is CURRENTLY looking at 20 years for a widebody upgrade. This number will certainly drop as we receive additional 787s and XLRs.
Projections over such a long timeframe are pointless. Over the next 20 years, we will see new managers, aircraft orders, new competitors, numerous disasters, etc.
Take the first class date and live in base. Dassit.