Originally Posted by
LAXtoDEN
It’s just that simple. 1 RJ (50 available seats) for 1 MAX (150+ available seats). That would require them to triple the their ticket sales to reach high load factors for said route.
I’ll more interested in how they’re going to fill those seats at a $ premium utilizing the hub and spoke model. It will be fun to watch United Next from the sideline if what you’re stating is accurate.
I think it’s more accurate to assume some of those new mainliners will be replacing the older mainline fleet. RJ flying is going away with or without mainline replacements. If you assume the majority will be replacements of newer mainline aircraft with older mainline aircraft the “gauge grows by 30 seats” projection sounds accurate to me.
‘Keep in mind that United is behind AA and DL when it comes to domestic capacity. United hubs domestically are under developed considering they do not have a fortress hub with scale similar to DFW, ATL, CLT…. This is due to Jeff Smisek shrinking domestic capacity after the merger when Delta grew domestically and upgauged their network with AA following behind. This is a issue that SK is now trying to resolve. There’s organic growth that the network can and will absorb. Then there will be some gauge growth that trickles down. Not all city pairs who were served with single class RJs will see upguaging as some will or have been cut. But there’s validity with single class RJs being upgauged to 76 seaters and 76 seaters going to A319s/737-700s, etc. We are seeing it with EWR currently. To your second point, I also believe that some of the older A/C will be replaced with new a/c. Also keep in mind, a lot of United NB fleet isn’t terribly old as they have received a good chunk of the 739ERs within the last decade. But we do have a lot of Airbuses, 737s, and 757s/767s that were acquired pre-merger that will be replaced.