Originally Posted by
Russs
There are more captains than late last year, but the gap isn't closing like they hoped. Captain upgrades are still a problem, but the reality is, they don't really have a way to keep FOs either. With the FO pay essentially stuck in the $90s, there is no real incentive for FOs to hang around to upgrade....especially when FOs who would be motivated to get the time and upgrade aren't flying. They're losing more FOs than captains to the ULCCs and Legacies and the new contract definitely did not address that. I think they need a retention plan for all pilots...if they offered a sizable retention check tied to a 3 year commitment or something like that, they may be able to curb some of the attrition until the Major's hiring frenzy is done.
I agree with most of this, but....it would still be difficult to do the retention bonus effectively. I know for myself, if I was looking to leave, I'd take the bonus and put it in an investment vehicle of some kind. If Delta / United / AA called, I'd jump and pay it back. How much would that retention bonus really have to be to be an effective deterrent to a career at the big three? It might help with the middle stop, ULCCs but it's not going to stop anyone from going to the big 3. FOs could make that up in year 2.
I don't pay attention to where folks are going all that closely, but, it seems to me that last bunch I've seen saying Adios on face space where on their way to a major.