Originally Posted by
RJSAviator76
I think they're waiting to see the results of SAV as it is the biggest test of our resolve thus far. The higher the YES vote and the higher the participation rate, the more likely will they take us seriously and stop with this BS. After all, any potential strike will cost them FAR, FAR, FAR more than it will ever cost us. If the meltdown cost us 1.3 billion... how much would something as controllable as a strike cost?
I think Wall Street will be the one to tell BoJo to settle this before we actually walk off the job...
The better the SAV approval margin and the better the turnout, the better our chances are that we will get a better contract. Anyone who votes no is undercutting their own position and is jeopardizing the well-being of themselves and their families as well as the well being of every pilot on the list and their families and is also harming the profession.
Having said that, it is a near certainty that FordHarrison advised management at both Alaska and Delta how to respond to their overwhelming SAV’s. It’s also a near certainty that FordHarrison is advising SWA management now and will advise SWA management how to respond to our SAV.
If it’s an overwhelming approval here with a near 100% turnout like it was at both Alaska and Delta, we can expect a similar response from SWA management as we saw from Alaska and Delta management: a probing, low-ball TA within a few months of the SAV.
Though it IS possible that we could get released this coming summer, it is unlikely. I am saying that so that we don’t succumb to negotiating fatigue if we have to wait another 18-24 months for a release. That’s just the way the game typically gets played. It’s much more likely that we end up having to wait 18-24 months than we get released this summer, though far from a sure thing. It can happen sooner.
Why is it unlikely that we don’t get released this summer? Read
this case. Then, after you’ve read that case, consider that the average time in mediation of all cases closed by the NMB from 1 Jan 2018 to 1 Mar 2023 is just under 700 days. Then, remember that we entered mediation on 15 Sep 2022.
Realize also that Delta waited for nine months to file for mediation after opening negotiations. When they got their TA, they were nearly three years into mediation. We waited 30 months to file for mediation and we are currently 205 days into mediation.