Originally Posted by Lewbronski

A release is different than the company dropping a TA on us.

I think the company is counting on negotiating fatigue setting in. They’re not crazy.

If I were in their shoes, I think I’d be counting on the same thing. After all, in the past, we have demonstrated a strong susceptibility to capitulate to negotiating fatigue. And just a few months ago, both Alaska and Delta melted in the face of negotiating fatigue despite the most favorable negotiating environment for the profession in more than half a century.

If I were the company, I’d drop a TA with what appears to be a large raise and some cosmetic improvements to some other high visibility items (like disability, the NEC, and a smattering of work rules) two to six months after the SAV, right when the pilot group thinks they have the company on the ropes.

The pilot group will believe the TA that the company drops will be the result of what they think is the massive pressure created by the SAV and pilots leaving (I don’t think the company cares much about pilots leaving because they can just replace them - sooner or later - with D225 koolaid drones). I think the pilot group will ratify a TA like that with a 75%-ish approval vote in a mistaken belief that they really stuck it to the company, That TA will be nowhere near what we could achieve if we waited for a release. A TA approval in that circumstance - before a release - will be a massive win for the company. They will have utterly outplayed us.

IMO, right now is the most leverage we are likely to ever have going forward. SWA, and most of the other airlines, are about to monumentally spin up their ab initio programs. Eight or nine years from now, when we are in the throes of our next negotiating cycle, our pilot group is likely to be heavily populated with homegrown, true believer company loyalists courtesy of D225. They will be supremely dedicated to the company that scooped them up and raised them - like ducklings imprinted on their mother duck.

If we capitulate to negotiating fatigue prior to a release from mediation, we will pay the price for years to come, similar to how we are now for not holding SWAPA’s feet to the fire back in 2016 in terms of settling for more than a billion dollars less than Platform and almost zero work rule changes. But this time will be worse because, if we fold like Alaska and Delta did, we will be giving up far more than we gave up in 2016.

Now is THE time. We will not “get it next cycle” if we don’t get it this time. We have all the leverage NOW. Next cycle, in all likelihood, we will have nowhere near the leverage we have now. This contract has to be a true generational contract or we will see this place deteriorate even further in terms of a place to work and to build a future.