I have not done an analysis of how many will call it quits. I'm thinking the effect will be small.

What I have seen is an overestimation on the positions coming open and an underestimation on the effect of over 60 and 3 to 2 man cockpit conversions.

Those issues are huge and conspire to pack to the back of the Boeing with extra bodies. I warned about that last fall but now it is coming up again. I would not brush off Cassel's message as insignificant.

Last time Cassel wanted to lower BLG. He was rebuffed as I thought he would be. This time he wants to excess on the 727. I think this one will come to pass.