Originally Posted by
Shaman
I sure did work for a regional and charter operators and ACMI carriers and Part 91 operator both domestic and abroad. Ive been in THIS business for a long time and had a horse shot out from underneath me once or twice.
So let's look at the facts we have. Does ASL have enough capacity to takeober a significant portion of the europena flying that the CGN base currently operates? No it does not.
Could it takeover 50% of it? No it could not anytime soon.
Did fedex state it was going to ceede all european flying to ASL? No they did not. In fact the specifically stated that the MEM 75 would be supporting European ops as it has been for years and did massively during covid.
opinion
If you had been based there during this time you could see it coming a mile away.
I also don't think the company wants that. Their dispatch reliability was pretty poor.
All that said if it gets people to pay attention to scope and realize that this focused negotations nonsense was bull 💩 from the beginning and was a mistake then thats to the good.
Beyond that making rash emotional decisions based on what you think is gonna happen from a system bid is folly. These systems bids arent worth the time spent to publish them. Trying to forecast manning levels 2 years into the future is what got them here in the first place.
The recession has been here. They wished it into existence long enough for inflation to cool and the supply chains to catch up. Things will return because the must. We are into deep now. The SVB collapse along with credit suisse and several others proved it. So did the government agreeing to protect ALL of those deposits. Print borrow print some more lend out 90% print some more. We cannot get off this merry go round without destroying everything.
Do not be afraid. Fear is the mind killer. It is the little death.
All fair points you make. I like conversations like this. I didn't mean to insult your experience by asking that question either, just merely trying to gauge whether or not you've been exposed to this playbook before. That being said, what makes you think that, despite never having announced an official ceding flying to them, they aren't simply holding this close to their chest as a means of retaliation a la AMR and Eagle/Envoy negotiations. AMR ceded Eagle flying and metal to TSA, which had notoriously **** poor operational control and reliability, just to essentially tighten the noose around the pilot group to show them they were willing to play ball too. You know what I mean? I understand your point you make. I realize it will not be an overnight thing should they decide to pursue this path, but certainly we cannot rule out this possibility? I realize this is all part of the game. I'm really not afraid. I couldn't be more excited because this is the one time where emails don't do **** and rubber meets road.
I would be interested to see how fast they could churn out those 738 conversions using 2 or 3 facilities.
I definitely think it is all worth the fight, but a fight it will be which is why my eyes are always on orders like these during times of economic/corporate fiscal austerity. If they're already trimming the fat by closing the FDA, why not trim even more and get rid of the Europe DH'ing and let these guys do it especially if we don't like what the company has to offer.
Couldn't agree with you more on your last statement about monetary policy and economic outlook, but it is my opinion that they've been specifically stalling anyways to bring us to this threshold. Hard to make an argument for concessions during good times. Easier when you sit at the precipice of economic uncertainty and you cutoff the hiring flow. I'd like to qualify all of this by saying I know absolutely nothing though
. We shall see.