First off, I have to say that I am very disappointed with the Company's appreciation for the work this pilot group has done over the past 50 years, especially the past 3. Their refusal to negotiate in good faith and put forth reasonable numbers to compensate us for what we have EARNED (and our peers are now earning) is insulting. They should come to the table and offer to compensate us like the professionals we are.

That said, I would like to maybe help some of us off the ledge with a little perspective on the numbers in posting 23-01.

The posting shows we currently have 402 aircraft, 108 narrow and 294 widebody. It also shows current staffing at 5490 pilots, 3099 Captains and 2391 FOs. 2631 of those CAs are widebody, 468 narrow. 2143 FOs are widebody, 248 narrow.

At the end of 20 months (Dec 24) we will have 400 aircraft, 105 narrow and 295 widebody. It also shows max staffing at 5518, an actual increase of 28 positions. Fewer of those will be widebody CA for sure, going to 2465, a decrease of 166. Narrow body CA decrease 56 down to 412 from 468. FOs increase of course from 2391 to 2641, with 2279 of them being widebody and 362 being narrow. More on this 362 number later.

So if you believe the information in the posting (I understand why many are skeptical) the overall number of pilots and aircraft are pretty stable for the next 20 months. Will more reductions be coming? Probably, but for now I think we should all realize that SCOPE is a much bigger issue than this realignment bid. I don't mean to diminish the hardship of being displaced (I have been there) or forced to move domicile (haven't had that displeasure) but I don't think that this posting indicates that the sky is falling. Remember that nearly 300 pilots will reach the mandated retirement age in those same 20 months.

What it does is push some people into lower paying seats and perhaps positions the company to be able to furlough in a couple of years if necessary with way more pilots in the most junior seat (those 362 MEM 75 FOs). Currently the ratio of MEM 75 FO to 75 CA is .47. At the end of the posting it will be .67. With 412 75CAs, current ratio would call for 193 FOs, not 362, so there are possibly 169 too many 75FOs at the end of the posting. Those excess positions will be absorbed by retirements and voluntary attrition and hopefully negate the need for a furlough down the road.

MEM 77 FO/CA ratio goes from 1.11 to 1.36 which seems reasonable. MEM 67 FO/CA ratio similarly increases from .60 to .74. ANC 77 FO/CA ratio goes from 1.16 to 1.20. OAK 67 goes from .65 to .85 and IND goes from .97 to 1.01. All of these seem to leave a little room for the company to have some leeway in the event of furloughs of some junior folks still holding on to some of the widebody right seats. Or perhaps the nature of the flying will require more FOs to CAs than in the past (more RFOs?)

In any case, I am not suggesting that the company is going to furlough, in fact just the opposite at the present time and for the next 20-24 months I don't think its likely at all. Although I am disappointed with the nature of this bid I don't think it is the signal that the end is near for FedEx. Realignment? Yeah, in a big way, but the bottom line is there should be at least a seat for everybody at the end of this posting. That said, if I were in the bottom 500 and had other options I would certainly be looking seriously at exercising them and go to a company that has agreed to pay their pilots what they are worth.

Open to comments, especially when doing math in public.