In my opinion, sooner or later we’ll see another black swan, it’s just part of life, cycles. It could be next month or in 2028.
Nobody can predict the future and no job is furlough safe BUT I think we are really lucky, due to all the insane amount of retirements. If it gets really ugly, I see them freezing hiring and maybe offering more early retirements, but no furloughs IMO.
Recalling pilots creates a ton of training events too, and training departments are already saturated as they are. And retirements are not gonna stop, with or without recessions.