Originally Posted by
Tuck
too optimistic. We were some 400-600 overmanned last Fall before DRIVE was even thought of. Now CO has signaled very loudly that we will need far less pilots in future. This bid is only first step in that - it will be incremental. The ratios are changing because they want to drive the SAM down and enter 4a2b then c then furlough if needed. There aren’t MORE ocean crossings requiring more RFOs - they have already said PAC crossings will DECREASE by 30%. Can’t get to where they want to be in one swoop.
if you are junior and have ability to at least take a hard look elsewhere you’d be crazy not to do it - even with pax carriers history of furloughs and bankruptcy. Anyone who has been here for awhile and not looking through rose colored glasses realizes how different FedEx wants to take things.
we won’t be hiring for several years at least.
So there are no plans for furloughing because we're only 200 over staffing metrics. Even if nobody retired (200 mandatory retirements per year), nobody left (which people on the bottom should), and nobody medicaled out we'd still be north of 4a2c staffing in a downswing for cargo. In 2 years we could see a global upswing in freight demand, the trade war with China end, 600 pilots leave, 400 pilots retire, a new contract, 400 early retirements, order new airplanes like A350s to hit new markets direct like Africa and parts of South America and need 1200 just to meet the current staffing level.
In all honesty this makes sense to retrain us for the new airplanes while there's less freight to move. If they scare the **** out of us during negotiations then that's a feature to them - not a bug.
Yes that's optimistic but it's FAR more plausible than furloughs after going through 4a2c when we aren't anywhere close to 4a2c levels by any metric. This isn't good but I don't think anyone should be peeing their pants either unless you're one of the commuters who'll be stuck in the right seat on reserve on the 757 for the next few years. Those guys should absolutely leave and there will be hundreds of them who do.