Originally Posted by Tropical

A word of caution on reading too much into upgrade times. While it's true that every NB fleet has CAs hired in 2022, that may not hold going forward with the AE (Delta speak for position bid) drought we've been having, and it creating a bid backlog. I think when the next AE comes, we'll see a lot of senior FOs who have been on the fence throw in an upgrade because they fear the next AE may not come for a while and the trips suck either way.

Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if the AE drought was an intentional move by management to make upgrades more senior. Word is that they weren't happy at all by how junior 73N and ER A have been going and how they had to cancel positions to keep it from going to people currently in indoc. By creating this backlog, it will probably cause CA to trend more senior.

There's also going to be a lot of cross fleet movement. I think we'll see WB B (wide body FO) go much more senior. 350 will likely become the most junior of the WBs everywhere except LAX. It's unlikely newhires will be seeing 330 any more, even in NYC.

Another wild card is that this is the first AE all the MOAB pilots (covid displacement) and most of 2021-2022s newhires have been unlocked for. That will also make things go more senior. I think many of these pilots want the WBs but were seat locked out, and that's the reason it's been going to newhires. This drought maximized those seat locks too.