Purely speculating based on heresay, no one with the intention of leaving is taking the offer. The union reps are telling pilots in ground school to put the money in a high yield account ASAP so that they at least break even if they decide to leave before their contract is up. Given that the payback isn’t even prorated — meaning they’re on the hook for the full amount for 3 years — no one I know has taken the money. I was a pre bonus hire and I’m not even mad about it, knowing the stipulations. I don’t currently intend to leave but I’d rather have the freedom to consider other offers if I change my mind in the next three years.

The cadets are the ones with limited options, but if this is your first 121 job you really don’t know much about the industry and 3 years is a short commitment for a college kid born in the 2000s, so it’s not a bad deal for them. Everyone with an unrestricted ATP and some regional experience ought to be savvy enough to stay out of the trap.