there seems to have been some leveling with regard to the juniority of bases, measured in terms of how junior the bottom pilots are/time to get it as a new hire (exception:vps, iwa). Still means it could be your desired base right away or it could take several months. Lax, pvu, las seem to be the biggest revolving doors as of late but could change in a month. However the last question is literally impossible to answer. there are no new bases so no quick movement anywhere. Reserve is not bad if you live base if not in Florida. Usually about a year to get off fo reserve.