Originally Posted by Zoomie

I think your analysis is pretty accurate.

Pros for mediation:
It will...eventually bring management to the table. Key word...eventually.
A strike vote after a year in mediation would actually mean a real threat, even if the government has an unofficial mandate to not release(that would be illegal, but it's the government, right?)

Cons for mediation:
The heavy lifting has already been done by Delta (thanks widget people) and any mediator won't push for us to have much more than DL.
Prior to DLs (and now a more than likely AA vote) mediation would have been smart, but our MEC dropped the ball and picked up a TUMI, which really hurt us.
Mediation won't move the ball forward in any meaningful way, but has a very real threat of extending our negotiations for another year or 2.

Bottom line IMO - we missed the mediation boat under the last MEC. We should have been screaming for this at the beginning of 2022, then we'd have been in mediation for a while now. SWA filed for mediation back in Sep 22. Perhaps we should have filed then, but our MEC was in the midst of recalls and mudslinging, so disfunctional at best.

We had to do a purge at our MEC and that honestly cost us a year of pay and benefits. Only some were screaming for mediation back then as we were all "hoping" management would see the light because SK said we'd only take 2 weeks.

Personally I think we have 2 choices:
1) Push SK for an "acceptable" AA type deal now. Maybe we see Delta "equal".
2) Punt and file for mediation and basically sit in limbo for another year or 2

Here's 2 things that I think will happen if #2 happens:
1) Large numbers of LCAs and instructors will quit and return to normal line flying, guys will bid down to WB FO from NB CA because they know they aren't going anywhere. They will have to rebuild the TK ranks which will take about 1-2 years, and will be much harder since the current UPA is not commuter friendly.
2) United Next will be significantly handicapped to the tune of large #s of delayed or cancelled deliveries

If this happens, pilot motivation will be crushed, ALPA will become much more militant and United will once again be a joke of an airline since the pilots won't be pulling on the same rope to help make the company better.

SK is playing with fire here. He's trying to proverbially "thread the needle" instead of paying up. He's a self proclaimed "gambler" at heart and he thinks saving $200 million over the next 4 years is worth it to him because he wants to line his management team's pockets.

IMO we get SK and management to sign off on a "super negotiation" the way DL did last fall. From what I understand they all met for 2 weeks in Charlotte and didn't leave till the NC and MEC signed off on an AIP. We don't have a mediator to force the hand, but we tell them that if we can't agree by Jun 14th, they will file for mediation and tell pilots that by doing so we "Don't expect a contract for another 2 years"... That will be the key to in essence breaking the United Next plan for the next 2 years, which is SK's baby. We don't want to break United Next, and neither does SK, but I think we all know that is our leverage, but it's leverage that in essence will be "cutting off our nose to spite our face". Do we want that? TBH, I think a final survey needs to go out and if the majority wants to trash United next, so be it.

We have to threaten the United Next plan in a meaningful way. We can't tell guys what to do, but if we punt and go to mediation, we send a message that we won't see anything for years. This is the only "real" leverage we have and in the end will probably only get us an extra 2-3% over Delta assuming the economy recovers and doesn't tank. With goodwill lost, we will never truly become a powerhouse like the United Next plan delivers and likely SK will be replaced in a year or 2. That's reality IMO.