Thread: MBCBP Poll
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Old 05-30-2023 | 06:41 PM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
If your income in retirement is the same or more, the marginal tax rate does not matter. And that's only if tax rates aren't increased(they definitely will be)
Exhibit A. You could not have made my point more perfectly.


An example to demonstrate:

A pilot has $400k of income at delta. For simplicity sake, let’s say the pilot doesn’t contribute a penny of their own money and only focus on the spill cash.

Said pilot receives $70k of income beyond the 401a17 income limit of $330k, thus generating $11,200 of spill cash for a total income of $411,200 that year. Assuming this pilot is married and filing jointly, they would owe 32% on the $11,200 of spill just for federal income taxes, plus any applicable state income tax, and 1.85% ALPA dues.

So let’s assume they live in a tax-free state. In such case they would have paid 33.85% tax on every dollar of spill they earned that year.

Now, in retirement let’s say the pilot has amassed enough retirement dollars to support a $400k per year withdrawal (not likely unless the pilot has other passive or active income sources, in which case all bets are off as he/she is no longer working within the assumption that their livelihood is dependent on the career we all signed up for- which is the vast majority of our pilots).

In retirement, that pilot would pay 10% of the first $22,000, 12% of the next $67,450, 22% of the next $101,300, 24% of the next $173,450, and finally 32% of the last $35,800. Add all that together, and the pilot will have paid $85,664 of federal income taxes on $400k of retirement plan withdrawals, or an EFFECTIVE tax rate of 21.4%. This pilot is still “in the 32% tax bracket”, but the treatment of dollars on the way OUT is vastly different than the treatment of the dollars on the way IN.

21.4% is the tax rate that compares apples to apples against the marginal rate applicable to spill cash, or in this example 33.85%. It’s this arbitrage that makes a tax-deferred account powerful. Less income in retirement makes the arbitrage even better.

Now, as an aside, I think assuming an average pilot will have the ability to withdraw an equivalent income as they were making in active service from their retirement account is kind of a stretch. A more realistic example based on a legacy pension level of retirement income (60%, or $240k in this example) yields an effective rate of $18.5%. And many states also have a progressive tax rate, which also would compound the arbitrage to the pilots favor.

Disclaimer for people with other income streams, of which there are about a million considerations as to if it makes sense. My example demonstrates an average pilot who wants to fly airplanes, and not manage outside ventures.

YMMV, DYODD
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