United has hired over 4,000 pilots since hiring started post pandemic. There are just over 4,000 pilots set to retire between now and the end of 2030. One option is the economy tanks or Putin launches nukes and they could furlough and not hire for a long time. On the other hand, we have hundreds of airplanes on order. If a large portion becomes growth and we end up a 20,000+ pilot list, the wave will keep rolling for a long time. Plan for the worst and be surprised when you catch a break.

History shows this profession gets kicked in the nuts pretty hard about once a decade. We averted crisis pretty well in 2020 when most pilots thought they were going to be significantly impacted. Fortunately the repeated kicking in the nuts has created the shortage we’re in today.

TLDR version no one really knows but if you have a lot of years left you should have a decent career, but won’t see as many years in the left seat of a widebody as a 20 something hired in 2021.