Originally Posted by
Nantonaku
We went from around ~11,000 to 16,000 in less than 3 years. That isn’t exactly quiet growth. United has been aiming for a 20,000 pilot group for two decades now so it is hard to take their goals seriously. If anyone really thought they are going to be 28,000 pilots strong in 6.5 years then it is an easy decision. There are also probably about 5,000 Delta pilots that would be well served to make that jump. It would be an amazing ride.
You are right, at least they have stated goals. And they aren’t as high on the international outsourcing horse as Delta. And they have more attrition. And they have a bigger international footprint. I’d probably gamble and go to United.
I think United is the way to go. United has hired relatively less, has plans to grow, has more diverse flying and has a base that (at 2.5 hours, kinda) works for you (if you want WB, you will likely be on reserve for years and you are outside of the SC window, so keep that in mind). How long would it take to get to NYC at Delta? Sounds like you would almost be better off commuting to ATL at that point.
That being said, we can't take growth plans of this magnitude at face value. 28,000 pilots? That would more than double United's size pre-covid. United, Delta and American are effectively the world's three largest carriers. If United grew to 28,000 pilots, it wouldn't be that far off from doubling the size of the world's second and third largest carriers (I think Delta and AA will both end up with around 17,000-17,500 pilots when this wave is over).
You have to ask yourself if this would make sense for United. Sure there is excess demand that is not being met at this time. That being said, it is the beginning of the summer and we are still riding the post-covid traveling wave. Does it make sense long term to be the world's largest airline by such a margin? Will travel demand support such an investment long term? What happens if travel demand doesn't support it and United is stuck paying off 700 new airplanes? These are questions management needs to answer, but it is fair for us to ask these questions. SK has touted "fleet flexibility," so there is no doubt these are factors management is considering as well.
My point is that these factors probably make the plan of 28k pilots extremely unlikely. That's fine. There are still plenty of things to be excited about. But I'd recommend you view the scenario as if United will settle on 18,000-20,000 pilots. If United gets to 28k, awesome. But at least you won't be making a decision viewing it as a foregone conclusion.