Originally Posted by
fanaticalflyer
Not sure where you are getting your info from. First of all the 321LRs aren't getting here for a few more years (2028) and when they do, they will only be concentrated out of EWR first, then the other east coast bases like IAD then ORD to replace old 757s for transatlantic flights.
The NEOs are still being planned out, but those would be transcon/HI. Right now, LAX 757 does very little HI flying, so no impact there. The 757 will shift a lot more to hub to hub flying which has already begun. The 757 fleet will be here until 2030 minimum. Only the really old ones will go. LAX and SFO 757 bases are going nowhere for a long time.
I think that’s particularly optimistic. Kirby has stated the -200’s will get phased out in 2026 replaced by the max 10’s and neos. There are only 20 300’s. At some point the economics of an extra 20 seats don’t outweigh the cost of keeping a fleet that small around. The 76 can be swapped with a 78-8 for about the same operating cost, the 78 announcement hinted at retiring the 76 around 2030, which indicates what CLazarus said about moving the remaining flying east, and the XLRs can do some of the lower capacity long thin routes.
IMO, based on everything management and analysts are saying, I think barring some kind of catastrophic downturn again the 757-200’s will get phased out in 2026, the -300’s will be moved to where most of the 767 flying is (IAH, IAD, EWR) until the 76 phases out in 2030 or so. I don’t think a 20 aircraft fleet can support bases in SFO and LAX.
I really like the 756 fleet and im sad to see it go but I just don’t see a long term market for it when only the smallest niche isn’t filled by existing fleet types. Hopefully it’s an easy transition for the crews when the time comes without much of a QOL hit.