Originally Posted by
AD200100
Thank you. Make sense and overall smart plan for the long term.
With the NEA now being canceled, are there any hints in the company on what will happen to LGA and BOS?
Looking the AA history, they don't make the effort to compete in airports that they are not number 1.
They will have to rebuild NY as it's a huge market, but what will happen to Boston? Provided that BOS only got 200 pilots, it looks very similar to what happened to St.Louis base
The truth is nobody knows how this will play out.
STL had 400 flights a day at its peak. It was a nice hub airport, central located. But too close to DFW and ORD to keep around with the combined carrier. Think of it like a PIT. Probably similar economically speaking as well (stagnant populations, slowly dying economies).
About JFK
On our widebody flights, on average, 40% of our total load is from connections with the overwhelming majority being those who fly on AA exclusively (33%). JetBlue contributes about another 6%, which amounts to about 250 people per day that the NEA contributes to.
Only two wide body transatlantic flights average over 80% load factor - Doha and Tel Aviv. Everything else is under 80% (LHR 60%!) which means we need more feed (or more local business). 80% load factor on wide bodies? Doesn't sound like we are making money there. I don't have that info though.
I'm optimistic for the future of AA in general, but personally do not think NYC nor BOS will be anything more than outstations with limited transatlantic point to point flights. Like you said, we just don't have that much room to grow in either market and it costs too much to use JFK as a hub as far as connection fees go. BOS isn't a great hub geographically speaking.
I don't know Delta's BOS statistics but it wasn't even until 2017 or 2018 where Delta was break even in NYC. It's just not a place where carriers can make money - the operational costs are too high. The port authority makes far more money than the airlines do there.
It's possible they will down gauge and run narrowbodies on transatlantic routes if they can be done at a profit (Vasu is on record stating it's very tough to make money doing so).
The 2023 AA is nothing like the 2019 AA. We are better in so many ways. Streamlined fleet, operationally sound with true effort being made to be reliable. Our top management aren't bean counters, they have an operational background. Effort beyond lip service to align the carrier financially with peers. Our mega hubs are being expanded with focus on efficiently down to the ATC level. This is something the AA and US of the past never did.