If you look at the current bid packs (this does not take into consideration the training left in the 23-01 bid) and look at where the FO's with 5000+ seniority numbers fall out you get the following. The amount of training needed to furlough these pilots and then displace more senior pilots to fill positions where they are vacated but needed (because furloughs would have to happen in seniority order not by overstaffed airframes individually) you begin to see the real picture. Furloughs would be very expensive considering the number of age regulated retirements in the coming years. I will be the first to acknowledge that we are overstaffed for current volume and I do foresee BLG's in the lower end of the range for some indeterminate amount of time but I do not think threatening furloughs is very realistic when you see just how spread out these junior pilots are by base/seat/equipment. If all of our most junior pilots were in the MD11 or A300 then perhaps the threat would be slightly more concerning.BOTTOM 671 as of August bid period:

BaseEquipment: Number of pilots (percentage of that seat)

MEM A300: 120 (43% of FO's)

MEM 757: 124 (46% of FO's)

EUR 757: 22 (31% of FO's)

MEM 767: 75 (14% of FO's)

IND 767: 11 (12% of FO's)

OAK 767: 65 (38% of FO's)

MEM 777: 89 (13% of FO's)

ANC 777: 35 (36% of FO's)

MEM MD11: 74 (25% of FO's)

ANC MD11: 47 (68% of FO's)

LAX MD11: 9 (16% of FO's)