I don’t think pax flying is significantly safer than FX/UPS. Pax carriers haul cargo too and note that many LiBatt incidents were from shippers not following rules and/or intentionally disregarding them - pax carriers aren’t immune from this.

At UPS, we use fire resistant ULDs (cans) and fire blankets over pallets while pax carriers still have the aluminum foil cans. We also have EVAS on all aircraft. Last, having hundreds of people on board means hundreds of opportunities for haz, LiBatt items in check baggage, iPhones catching fires, and so on…

For FedEx/UPS, load shifts aren’t a major threat like they would be at an ACMI. I’m not aware of any significant events for either company in recent years - correct me if wrong here. At UPS we walk the main deck on the 74 before departure and on all fleets we usually have enough cans loaded that would prevent a significant CG change if things started moving around.

Circadian: intl/long haul, I don’t think there’s much difference and could even argue it’s slightly less fatiguing at Fx/UPS vs pax.

Domestic, night sort flying is taxing and a big percentage of FX/UPS flights but pax carriers aren’t exactly immune from back side of the clock work (eg. red-eyes, early am shows, etc.). There’s also a fair amount of day flying. Really, only a segment of pilots are flying nite domestic.

Another factor - FX/UPS pilots in general fly a lot less block hours per year that pax guys do which has the effect of reducing the risk for a lot of these factors. Less risk of hijacking. Less exposure to communicable diseases, etc.

Again, not arguing cargo is safer than pax, just suggesting that they are probably closer that your posts suggests.