My prediction is that it will mostly be effective. One of the things a lot of people misunderstand about what makes our RSV so bad is that trying to make money is such a crap shoot that it really isn’t worth trying. You can easily end up working most of the month & still have nothing to show for it at the end. So even the local guys just try to stay home & the undesirable assignments roll downhill- often to commuters. (A system where some people are effectively incentivized to work more also benefits those who are trying to work less.)

As a contrast, under the new contract, a VEC who APUs 4 early trips is looking at around 20 hours add pay for the month (12 out of the gate plus 8 for the pickups)- and that’s on top of flying over guarantee- so he could be realistically looking at over 100 hours of pay for 80 something of trip credit. That beats a junior line in my book. (Multiply your pay rate by 12 hours & ask yourself if you were living in base whether that would be worth the possibility that you might get assigned an early report trip- I think these will be popular.)

VSC has less incentive to bid & I don’t have a sense of how popular it will be. SC still only pays if early, built late, or unused, so I think some of those will be harder to sell & will get forced. Whether SC for a standard RSV becomes a rarity, or just a less frequent occurrence, I believe they will be easier to avoid if that’s your first priority.

And of course, the percentage of pure LCR required remains to be seen, so it could be anything from a significant player to merely a nice idea. But forced FSB is gone & that will be big for all RSVs.