Originally Posted by
CLazarus
BOS is by far the best bet for another, if any. 40 mainline departures scheduled tomorrow, 26 of which are on the Guppy. The rest are a mix of Bus/752 (and one 763 to LHR). CLE has 27 departures tomorrow, 100% Guppy and about 120 crews. LAS has 39 departures, 35 on the Guppy. The LAS base has actually gotten a bit smaller since the first VB it was offered (93 CAs now vs 100ish at open). I think they couldn’t grow LAS more because too many potential CAs would rather make the short commute to SFO/LAX WB than fly the crappy 737 trips they’ve built in LAS so far. And no point growing it further while NH WB FOs have been flocking in to break their seat locks. MCO 737 has grown to 150ish crews since opening. If LAS stabilizes and starts to grow above 100 crews, then I think BOS will likely happen within a couple of years because the percentage of Guppy trips into BOS will rise as the fleet grows. The percentage of Bus flying might grow a tad or remain stable as the 321LR assumes the 752 transcon role in the next few years. Because of LAS and its stunted growth so far, I don’t see PHX anytime soon. Believe it or not ATL, DFW, and SEA have around 30 departures a day across fleets, so further down the road they too might be candidates if the Guppy ‘factor’ grows high enough. God help us all.
BOS has too much competition from DAL/JBU to be a good play… especially since United already has two Northeast-ish hubs. If United is laughably weak anywhere, it’s the Southeast where DAL dominates from ATL and AA from CLT/MIA. I’d like to think expanding TPA (rapidly becoming a financial hub)/MCO can complement IAH nicely while expanding United’s footprint in the fastest growing region of the US… and providing a convenient connecting point for trips to the Caribbean islands. As someone who lives in the southeast, flying on United to anywhere in the Caribbean or Central America on United just doesn’t make sense when I can fly on DAL/AA through a much more convenient hub