Sure, there are uniformed estimates in our everyday lives that drive varying degrees of outcomes...maybe walking into the sports book and betting on a game you know nothing about because you like one team's mascot. Or estimating that the egg salad at your family picnic is ok to eat after being in the summer sun for four hours. Examples of relatively non-consequential estimates when no data is available.

And then there is irresponsibly making a long-term decision affecting thousands of people using a number pulled out of one's ass that can't possibly be vouched for.

Do you not see the problem with that? What if mgmt actually paid the missed 23M7 pilot 80% of the time? Why didn't he pull 80% out of his ass, and wouldn't that have resulted in another decision? Because without any data, 80% is as legitimate of a guess as 20%. Nah. That wouldn't fit his desired outcome.

This rep is attempting to launder his decision after the fact by trying to convince you with a made-up number--impossible to prove or disprove--without bothering to ascertain the actual number when it mattered. It's pure charlatanism. I'm just surprised that you can't or won't see what he's doing.