Originally Posted by
PilotWombat
So first, I'm just the messenger. These are the numbers they used when discussing future hiring. I claim no responsibility for the company's assumptions or plans. But...with those numbers, that's 5000 new pilots by the end of 2026, minus a little over 1800 mandatory retirements (67 not included...). So yeah, somewhere about 19,000 by then. I wanted to ask what their goal size was, but the conversation drifted away from that topic.
We'll, lets look at our orderbook. Can't grow 4% without a fleet to offer the extra capacity. Here's our backlog summary:
- 120 A321neo. Deliveries through 2027. 70 additional options.
- 100 737-10MAX. Deliveries start 2025-2029. 30 additional options
- 69 A220-300. Deliveries go through 2027. 14 additional options.
- 16 A330-900. Deliveries through 2025.
- 16 A350-900. Deliveries through 2027.
289 NBs
(+84 options)
+32 WBs
=
321 (405 w/options)
By EOY 2027: ~
270 deliveries. We certainly will retire out some old 320s, 757s and 767s. Also, we've seen plenty of missed targets on deliveries. So it's unclear what the actual fleet size will be. But from a network/fleet perspective, 4% growth is about +35-40 new hulls per year (we have about 915 mainline now). Add 270 jets, retire out about 80 (whispers of about 11 767s, 30 320s, 40 757s)..thats about 1100 mainline by 2027, or 4% annual growth. And I'm not totally sure what they mean by 4%. Could be seats (ASMs), revenue (RSMs) or fleet size. Either way, yes, barring a recession, we have firm commitments to grow mainline. Pilot group size will expand. Hiring 1000+ per year makes sense through this decade.