That’s mostly true but not entirely true. I think most people would say Delta is near the end of their wave, pretty much regardless of anything except a shocking new growth plan.

It seems like somewhat realistic numbers for what an equilibrium at each airline might look like would be 19-20k at UA and 17k and change at Delta and American. We also know mandatory retirements (regardless of whether the age is increased, the can is just kicked down the road 2-3 years). Delta and American could decide to grow more, but we can’t count on that right now.

If you believe United will truly hire to get to 26k or the market will totally tank, then who knows. Those scenarios seem unlikely at this point. All of this is to say, you are right but we can at least come up with a reasonable estimate.