Originally Posted by
CRJCapitan
That’s mostly true but not entirely true. I think most people would say Delta is near the end of their wave, pretty much regardless of anything except a shocking new growth plan.
It seems like somewhat realistic numbers for what an equilibrium at each airline might look like would be 19-20k at UA and 17k and change at Delta and American. We also know mandatory retirements (regardless of whether the age is increased, the can is just kicked down the road 2-3 years). Delta and American could decide to grow more, but we can’t count on that right now.
If you believe United will truly hire to get to 26k or the market will totally tank, then who knows. Those scenarios seem unlikely at this point. All of this is to say, you are right but we can at least come up with a reasonable estimate.
there was recently a management member quoted as saying they were eyeing roughly 4% growth per year at delta (mostly narrowbody and regional replacement) through the end of the decade. Word was 1600 pilots next year, and then 1300 a year till the end of the decade. Might well be overly optimistic, but tracks with the current order book.
Without question, retirements are not going to help seniority much. There is about 500/yr for the next several years. That's 1/32 of the list each year, which, assuming every pilot stays at delta for roughly 30 years on average, makes for completely average retirement years going forward. American has some years with nearly a thousand retirements coming up.