I'm not even sure what you guys are debating (Excargodog and Andy). Of course it makes sense for a lot of new FO's at ULCC's to leave for legacies. It may make sense for some captains in certain circumstances to leave as well. Will the majority leave? No. Will guys who stay be the equivalent of "regional lifers" and experience no seniority growth? No. To think that someone will be stagnant at Spirit because FO's will continue to get scooped up at this rate is not looking at the big picture. This current hiring environment is a blip on the radar of a 30-year career. If he/she is young enough, he/she can ride an incredible wave when the 40 something's start retiring down the road.

The upcoming contract seems to open the door for DEC's or de facto DEC's where someone gets 100 hours on the line and then is awarded an upgrade. The general consensus seems to be that this will attract captains from WN, NK, F9, etc. who want to go to UA but don't want to give up their CA money. What I think is more likely to happen is you have a 2000 hour F9 FO with 1000 hours right seat in an airbus bid captain, get their 350 hours in a 737, and then upgrade with less than 2500 total time, minimal time in Boeing aircraft and less than a year on property. Unless those vacancies get filled soon, it's likely to happen.