Originally Posted by
Gators
If the above is true (Nobody knows what will be replacement or not), is United going to be way over their skis? This screams over capacity, no.?
Quite the opposite.
On the pilot side, the floor for lines were running in the high 70s to low 80s for many BESs this last summer. They are short on pilots and United won't reach peak retirements for another few years; currently about 400 pilot retirements a year. Compare that with NK/F9/etc retirements they're a slow trickle for the next two decades. United is also upguaging former RJ routes to mainline which increases the need for mainline pilots.
On the passenger side, Q2's load factor was 86.4% with record profits.
Originally Posted by
Excargodog
Not so much as it screams pilot shortage with insufficient incentive for upgrade. It’s already hit the regionals. No reason to believe the majors would somehow be immune. With increased salaries for the senior FOs fewer seem willing to take the QOL hit of becoming the bottom of a new seniority list.
Poor analysis. You guys are always trying to spin eveything at the legacies as bad things. It's very humorous to read the collective take on unfilled CA vacancies by those whose companies have very few CA vacancies.
Progression has been rapid since the end of Covid so any QOL hit is short lived. I'd attribute the unfilled CA vacancies more due to the fact that 1) the sheer volume of monthly CA vacancies, and 2) if one doesn't bid for an upgrade this month, they can next month or any other month.