Originally Posted by
OpieTaylor
Its not news to me but the last 50 seat jet order was probably 2004. Most of what is happening was already going to happen because there are only 3 majors left and they each make 50B.
They are all scope chocked on large RJs, and there is no viable equipment for < large RJ
The small market was overdeveloped during a pilot surplus of the 90s and carried though post 9/11, so removing a surplus does not constitute a shortage.
All 3 majors have ordered hundreds of RJs over the last 10 years and none were props or 50 seaters.
They can easily restore those routes. The majors use RJs to supplement frequency on routes already served by them.
For example, RJs supplement CLT-ATL all they have to do is pull it off CLT-ATL and deploy it wherever they want, they don’t want to.
You are looking at a Covid pilot supply chain issue and rubber stamping shortage on top when you know full well the turboprop/50 seat market has been circling the drain since the big 3 merged.
There is 0 indication there was a ever a plan to replace 50 seat jets plane for plane upon them being retired after 20 plus years of service.
This is about right.
I suppose the glaring error on the part of the majors was turboprops... they should have insisted on 50-seat prop jobs to replace the gas guzzling RJ's (yes the US majors can call the tune to which the mfgs dance). They'd still have a pilot shortage at this moment but that would mitigate over time as the mass retirement wave concludes. With a somewhat steady state retirement rate, and a little bit of due diligence and engagement in the training pipeline, the majors should be able to find pilots to fly small props at reasonable wages. Especially if the props are new design and aren't high workload and high skill like some of the equipment we flew back in the day.
At this point we might even see props return in hybrid or even electric form... that can probably work on short routes. Especially if it provides some greenie street cred for the airlines.