Originally Posted by
OOfff
regionals are having trouble retaining captains, not recruiting new FOs. That’s why they’re backed up for months on new hire classes.
And some of those new FOs didn't have the minimums while going through training and subsequently have had to get the minimum hours before starting all over again.
Yes, definitely a CA problem hence all of the DEC ads.
However, that doesn't mean that there are plenty of new FOs out there; it just means the bottleneck is currently on the CA side.
Months backed up for classes isn't the norm and if a new FO's been waiting for that long, chances are that s/he's already flying for someone else before they get a call for class.
Originally Posted by
OpieTaylor
Its not news to me but the last 50 seat jet order was probably 2004. Most of what is happening was already going to happen because there are only 3 majors left and they each make 50B.
They are all scope chocked on large RJs, and there is no viable equipment for < large RJ
The small market was overdeveloped during a pilot surplus of the 90s and carried though post 9/11, so removing a surplus does not constitute a shortage.
All 3 majors have ordered hundreds of RJs over the last 10 years and none were props or 50 seaters.
They can easily restore those routes. The majors use RJs to supplement frequency on routes already served by them.
For example, RJs supplement CLT-ATL all they have to do is pull it off CLT-ATL and deploy it wherever they want, they don’t want to.
You are looking at a Covid pilot supply chain issue and rubber stamping shortage on top when you know full well the turboprop/50 seat market has been circling the drain since the big 3 merged.
There is 0 indication there was a ever a plan to replace 50 seat jets plane for plane upon them being retired after 20 plus years of service.
You are believing the narrative you want to.
American Airlines doesn’t serve Africa and now doesn’t serve DelRio Texas. You are trying to say one is a business decision and one is a shortage when they are both business decisions.
Regionals are not having any problems recruiting new pilots. They have a shortage of pilots with 1,000 121 to severe as CA, that is largely due to no one building time due to Covid.
So how do you explain the steep decline in experience/resume quality at the majors for new hires? The shrinking pool size? Those don't scream shortage to you?
Lack of CAs at the regionals doesn't scream shortage to you?
If I were applying to a major today, I could have no college degree, multiple checkride failures and a DUI. A few years ago, resumes with any of those items went to the TBNT pile. How much lower can the minimum candidate quality get before you acknowledge that there's a pilot shortage?