My two cents is that United buying Mesa is far-fetched. Besides the scope-clause issue, why would they want every Mesa pilot regardless of training history, DUI’s, etc? They need pilots, but not that badly.

I also think that United can’t afford to lose Mesa right now. They would lose the majority of their regional capacity at IAH, and a significant chunk at IAD. No regionals are in a position to pick up flying at the moment, especially Commutair. United Mainline can’t just add hundreds of regional flights at these bases in a month, either.

They will keep Mesa limping along until they find a long term replacement, or merge Mesa with another regional. October is just too soon for United to kill Mesa without serious operational disruptions.

That being said, as many of commented, Mesa won’t be around for long. The regional model just isn’t sustainable anymore. Hopefully it ends with a soft landing rather than a bang (like expressjet) in a year or two.