Originally Posted by Sunvox

The numbers I present are approximate guesses based on an old man's memory so if they're not 100% accurate I apologize, but just to put a little emphasis on this point . . .

When I was hired in 1996 there were about 8400 United pilots and the program that was available at that time predicted I would make 747 captain at age 54 with about 6 years to go. Just before bankruptcy I think UAL had between 10 and 11,000 pilots and models showed me making 747 captain at about 52. Fast forward to the MAD date (I forget what MAD stands for but it was the date used to officially take a snapshot of seniority and aircraft at UAL and CAL for purposes of the merger) and the UAL list had something like 5400 active pilots and models showed me never making 747 captain. I made 777 captain February of 2022 at age 55 meaning I will have 9-10 years at the top paid position if I stay (which I fully intend NOT to do).

Point is throughout my career there were wild swings in future expectations, but oddly enough in the end it worked out even better than I originally hoped. Also, let's not forget that other pilots of my generation had even wilder swings in expectations since they found themselves pushed out of the industry altogether on several occasions.

Age old pilot advice: Don't make plans based on what you think or hope will happen. Bid and fly what you want and like today; don't pin your happiness on future hopes, live within your means, and always have a plan for the worst.