Originally Posted by
FlexManFlex
Yep which is currently around 67% seniority. If hired today at 16,500 that would mean you’d need to be 11,000 to hold the plug SEA330. 400 retirements per year that puts a new hire at 14 years to hold it. We will be growing so with a 10% growth that puts you at 12,000 ish so 12 years to hold SEA330B.
I feel like these kinds of extrapolations are so subjective. Few things to note here with one being the fact 40% of pacific is still uncovered. Then you have to look at bid trends with the pacific recovery. SEA330 hasn’t had a bunch of openings on last few bids but trends about 3-500 seniority numbers more junior each bid. Last mock was even a larger jump down to 11.2 which didn’t make it through the final.
Then you look at A’s they have retiring it’s a high number in that base. I wouldn’t be so sure that bid patterns remain the same as they did with the senior guys there. Seattle has seen a major shift from what it was 10-20 years ago.
then let’s look at what the 330 fleet size by 2030. A huge wildcard here if there’s an order and accelerated movement away from ER’s by 2030 internationally. If SLC opens, changes everything too. Could be good for a base like SEA.
do I think it’s going to be some dramatic movement junior? No. But I think to say it will be 12 years and bottom list will be 9-11’s even over the next decade…I’m not buying that either. That’s way to far out to speculate where seniority numbers or WBB lie.