Originally Posted by Chowdah

Being cynical is lazy and ultimately it’s just a reflection that you’re afraid to get your hopes up for fear of being disappointed.

Realistically, I think they will keep hiring and delaying the retirement of aircraft until demand drops off. At the rate global air commerce is growing, that very well could be more than 10 years out. The giant caveat is the next black swan event… But if any of us were in charge of strategic long term planning, you have to have assets in place to capitalize (literally) on the best case scenario, and create off-ramps for the worst.

in our case, they could always retire air frames and let the 800+ pilots a year not be replaced for years 2025 through ‘28 (or 2027 through ‘30 if age 67 passes).

I certainly don’t know what the future holds, but if I was a book-maker, I would be giving this much better odds than the snarky peanut gallery here does 😘